The structural divergence
This is not cyclical — it's structural. Wages compound up; AI costs compound down. Every year you delay locking in AI capacity, the gap widens by another 10–15%.
UK Macro · 2026
Salary Inflation UK: Why AI Is the Hedge
UK salary inflation has run 5–6% annually for three years while AI compute costs have fallen 40% per year. The crossover means a 2026 hire costs ~25% more in real terms than a 2023 hire — while an AI equivalent is 60% cheaper than two years ago.
UK wage growth
5–6%/yr
AI cost decline
−40%/yr
3-yr swing
~85%
Hedge ratio
Strong
Frequently asked
Will AI prices rise?+
Inference is commoditising fast. The trend is unambiguously down for the next 5+ years.